VICTORY

My predictions were right!! Hooray. I was 10/10 for Best Picture and 4/5 for Best Director (I had Christopher Nolan instead of the Coen Bros.) Now that all the nominations are officially out, I can place my bets on the winners. I'm starting to think The King's Speech will edge out The Social Network for Best Picture. Only time will tell I suppose. As for Best Actor and Best Actress, I think Colin Firth and Natalie Portman are shoe-ins.

More Oscar Predictions

So I've already listed six predictions for Best Picture. Obviously, this is one of the most interesting, if not THE most interesting race, so I am especially curious to find out which films will fill the remaining four slots.

Two films that I think have a pretty good shot are Winter's Bone and Toy Story 3. I also think that The Kids Are All Right, Blue Valentine, and 127 Hours have a good chance. I've heard The Town tossed around, but I watched it two nights ago and thought it was good but not great.

I'll go out on a limb and make this my final list:

1. The Fighter
2. True Grit
3. Black Swan
4. The King's Speech
5. Inception
6. The Social Network
7. Winter's Bone
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. 127 Hours

I don't necessarily agree with all of these choices, I just think that's what they'll be. I wish Shutter Island would get a nod, but as it came out right after last years awards, I doubt it will.

As for Best Director, I think David Fincher (The Social Network) is a sure thing. I also think Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) will be nominated since I don't think he's gotten a nod before. But as for the last three spots, there are six feasible names I can seen filling them, the most likely probably being David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), and Christopher Nolan (Inception). The other three who have a shot are the Coen Brothers (True Grit), Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right), and Debra Granik (Winter's Bone). Maybe the last two are just wishful thinking on my part, since this category is so notoriously short on women, but I can see Granik getting a shot as the indie dark horse.

Of course, there's always the chance that Danny Boyle could get nominated for 127 Hours (which I still haven't seen, and thus can't comment on whether or not he deserves it) or Ben Affleck for The Town (which I have seen, and thought it was a less good version of Gone Baby Gone, so, while I hope Ben gets nominated someday, I hope it's for a better movie than this).

Next up are predictions for the acting categories and maybe if I feel like it, screenplays.

Playing the Oscar Prophet

In a couple of days, after I've had some time to sit down and think about it a little more thoroughly, I will come up with a more complete list of Oscar Nomination Predictions. And once the actual nominations are posted, I'll make more accurate predictions about the winners. But until then, here's what I predict:

Among the Best Picture nominees will be -

1. True Grit
2. The Fighter
3. Black Swan
4. The King's Speech
5. Winter's Bone
6. Inception
7. The Social Network

And I predict that The Social Network will win.

Why I Watch Movies

I've been lucky enough to see A LOT of great movies lately, each of them worthy of their own lengthy post. Unfortunately, there's just no way I can get thoroughly caught up. So, with the adage of "Something is better than nothing" in mind, I'll give a brief gut reaction to each of them.

1) The Fighter - Excellent, understated film that manages to live up to the hype but not in the way you would expect. Avoids cliches and "triumphant-sports-movie-swell-of-emotions" moments by refraining from indulgent camera-lingering after "important" or "moving" lines have been said. Matter-of-fact in the best sense possible.

2) True Grit - As good as you would expect a movie with this subject matter made by the Coen Brothers to be. Could not be a more perfect marriage of content and director; an exceptionally great cast to boot. At its core, about how Time itself (much like protagonist Mattie Ross) plods matter-of-factly and mercilessly on.

3) Black Swan - Slightly disappointing, simply in that it was not as shocking as is was touted to be. However, this could be due to one of two reasons: 1) because I had read a signigicant number of reviews and spoiler alerts before watching this film, and 2) because I am very familiar with the world of ballet and thus could not be shocked by what otherwise might be "shocking realities" of the ballet world. That said, I was impressed by Natalie Portman's appearance, though not Barbara Hershey's. I also applaud Darron Aronofsky for spotting an excellent opportunity for a setting - the world of ballet (rife with vulnerable girl-women striving impossibly for perfection, domineering Balanchine-esque directors, physical rigor bordering on masochism, and the ever-present mirror, with it's second-guessing, esteem-sucking quality) - and using it as the stage for one woman's descent into obsession and insanity.

4) The Wind That Shakes the Barley - This film broke my heart and ended before it could mend it again; still, I would recommend it to anyone. Like The Lives of Others, this film portrays the daily lives of common people during an era of history largely unfamiliar to most. At the end, I was left really questioning for the first time the causes of war, and if any cause is ever worth it. More specfically, I found myself marveling at the fact that a belief in an abstract idea, government, or political concept could be so strong that you could look another human being in the eye and kill them because of it. This movie contains characters who are both able and unable to do this, and compassionately portrays all of them.

5) The Lives of Others - Astoundingly interesting and moving film that manages to be compelling on multiple levels - first as an in-depth look into the realities of pre-fall Germany, secondly as a testimony to the transformative power of art, and finally as a subtle celebration of our ability to be moved by another person's humanity.